Trading analytics
Trading expectancy, explained
A strategy can win most of the time and still lose money, or win less than half the time and be highly profitable. Expectancy is the number that actually tells you which one you're running.
The formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
This is the exact calculation Fillbook runs on your logged trade history: win rate and loss rate are the share of trades that were winners and losers, and average win/loss are the average dollar size of each. The result is the average amount you can expect to make or lose per trade, given how you've actually traded.
Why win rate alone is misleading
A strategy that wins 70% of the time with small wins and occasional large losses can have negative expectancy — the losses, though rare, are big enough to outweigh the frequent small wins. A strategy that wins 35% of the time with large winners and small, disciplined losses can have strongly positive expectancy. Win rate tells you how often; expectancy tells you whether it's worth it.
Worked example
Say you win 40% of trades, your average win is $600, and your average loss is $250. Expectancy = (0.40 × 600) − (0.60 × 250) = 240 − 150 = $90 per trade. Over 100 trades, that's a $9,000 expected result — even though you lose more often than you win.
What moves your expectancy
Two levers: win rate and the ratio between your average win and average loss. Improving either moves expectancy — a common trap is trying to raise win rate by cutting winners short, which can shrink your average win faster than it raises your win rate and make expectancy worse, not better.
See your real expectancy, not just your win rate
Fillbook calculates expectancy, profit factor, and R-multiple from your actual trade history automatically — broken down by setup and symbol.
Start free →Frequently asked questions
Any positive expectancy means the strategy makes money on average per trade, before considering how many trades you can actually place. Comparing expectancy across strategies matters more than hitting a specific number — a strategy with lower per-trade expectancy but far more trading opportunities can outperform one with higher expectancy and rare setups.
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss — a ratio with no unit. Expectancy is a dollar (or R-multiple) amount per trade. They usually move together, but expectancy answers "how much do I make per trade on average," which profit factor alone doesn't tell you.
Yes — expectancy is calculated from your full logged trade history automatically, alongside win rate, profit factor, and R-multiple, broken down by symbol and setup.
See expectancy alongside your other core numbers on Trading Performance Analytics — Fillbook.Score individual trades against planned risk with the R-Multiple Calculator — Fillbook.